Gaza Occupyment/ "Bloodbath, negotiations, the Putin factor: all the unknowns of Israel's plan"
The UN Security Council is meeting today to discuss Israel's decision to occupy the Gaza Strip. But negotiations are still ongoing.
"Netanyahu will provoke mass killings." This is the warning sounded by UN Secretary-General António Guterres on the eve of today's UN Security Council meeting. The UN executive body will have to decide on the plan to occupy the Gaza Strip, approved by the Israeli war cabinet over the opposition of top military officials.
The Israeli government is implementing its plan, despite opposition from a growing number of countries. The only unknown factor, explains Filippo Landi , former RAI correspondent in Jerusalem and special correspondent for TG1 Foreign Affairs , "is the US position in the Security Council." Meanwhile, Vice President J.D. Vance has made it known that the US will not recognize "a State of Palestine."
At the moment, Landi explains, the occupation of the Strip appears to be tied to two aspects. The first is a negotiated effort currently being conducted under the radar by Egypt and Qatar, with Saudi approval. The second is the migration of Palestinians expected to leave Gaza. Putin's approval would be required and could be discussed at the Putin-Trump summit on Ukraine, scheduled to take place in Alaska on August 15th.
According to Haaretz , not only Chief of Staff Zamir, but also Netanyahu's top security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, rejected the occupation plan. How do you explain this opposition?
Twenty-two months of war have brought the situation to a point that is difficult to manage in purely military terms. The IDF knows it is dealing with a territory, the Gaza Strip, with 80% of its infrastructure destroyed and a starving population . And it knows that taking possession means preparing for a long stay, becoming mired in a permanent guerrilla war. This is not a new reality, having already been experienced from 1967 to 2005.
What does all this entail?
Israel finds itself at a political crossroads. Either it empties Gaza of Palestinians, or it must acknowledge that the war has not been won so far and that an agreement is therefore needed , not only with Hamas, but with the entire galaxy of militias operating in Gaza.
Is there a negotiation underway or are only Israeli weapons left?
There is a last-minute effort underway involving several Arab countries, as well as some political and military figures within Israel. Egypt is seeking a solution, with Saudi approval, which could and should have Hamas's support.
A solution based on which points?
The first: the Israeli withdrawal and a ceasefire to end the war, plus Hamas's willingness to have its militants lay down their weapons inside the Strip. The second point is the exile abroad of its military wing members. The third point is a new administration for Gaza, mostly led by Palestinians, without an army or militants, but with a regular police force to maintain public order. And finally, the full resumption of international aid.
What are the “prices” of this attempt?
They are on the rise, because international public opinion's rejection of the war cabinet's plan has revitalized the role of mediators and their political message to Netanyahu, which coincides with that of the military.
What do you mean?
Hamas must accept the renunciation of weapons inside Gaza, but Netanyahu must accept the fact that the release of the hostages can only happen through an agreement with their detainees, that is, with Hamas.
On the day of the war cabinet meeting, Netanyahu spoke of Israel's willingness to hand over control of the Strip to unspecified Arab forces. Does this have anything to do with the Arab states mentioned?
No. Netanyahu's statement was one that not even his aides and the military consider plausible. No Arab state would agree to play policeman over the rubble of Gaza and perhaps repress guerrilla actions against Israel.
So it was just a tactical move?
It was a message to the Israeli military: I don't intend to drag you into the Gaza quagmire for the next twenty years. Except the Chief of Staff doesn't believe him. There's one thing we shouldn't overlook.
Which?
In these hours, General Zamir attacked the ministers who voted in favor of Netanyahu in the very long Israeli war cabinet meeting, which lasted 11 hours.
Does this mean the fracture still needs to be healed?
Zamir personalized the conflict because he counted on a majority of ministers willing to vote against Netanyahu and the occupation of the Strip. This is the reality behind the specter of a coup floated by Netanyahu's son. Today, the general's anger tells us that a segment of politicians has once again chosen to support the prime minister.
If negotiations fail, the occupation of Gaza will remain, and with it, according to Netanyahu's calculation, the expulsion of the Palestinians. Under what conditions can this happen, and where?
The destination would be Cyrenaica, passing through Egypt. But for the plan to be realized, the migration must be accepted not only by Haftar, who controls Cyrenaica. Putin's approval is needed.
Could this be the reason for the telephone conversation between Netanyahu and Putin that emerged on August 4?
The Palestinians' displacement in Cyrenaica will be a topic of discussion on the sidelines of Trump and Putin's planned meeting in Alaska. If Putin is satisfied with the discussions on Ukraine, Trump may quietly ask Putin to approve the Palestinians' departure.
The whole operation is predicated on the Palestinians still in the Strip agreeing to leave. Will that be the case?
This is the real problem. The reality is that today, internationally, we are witnessing a chorus of opposition to the move, with the exception of the United States. So it's certainly possible that a significant mass of Palestinians, as soon as the tanks return to the Strip, will decide not to leave Gaza.
What awaits us?
This is exactly what Zamir had his men tell Israeli journalists: that there is a risk of a bloodbath, for which the IDF would be held responsible. A tragedy that would add to the deprivation and starvation.
(Federico Ferraù)
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